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Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. submitted by OhSoRefreshing to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either. THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because... ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects.Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all... Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons: NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere. SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent.Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure. |
submitted by Mullernuller to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense. I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days. And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind. I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change. One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone! Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend. What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't. NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price. Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk. Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em! Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01 Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors. BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger? Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A. FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me. I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do. NOK PLAY: Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part. 1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head. 2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends. 3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
Value Part (crazy part in Q&A): The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble. Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/ Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27 They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers? Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too. So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back. Q&A Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to? Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company. Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER. https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5 That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price. Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially". But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up. So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands. Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it. They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen? Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself. Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps. Q: Why is NOK not rocketing? A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady. The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April. SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible. Q: How do we know it’s working? A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how. This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up? What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor. Q: Where will this max out and when? A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it. Set your targets to $3310, that should do it. Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy? A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it. Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK. A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money. Part 2: (29 Jan) First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK. NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us. OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this. What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with. But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
UNBREAKABLE 3310! ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan): I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so. I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks. But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late. Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world. 3516.16% of average trading volume. Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze. But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them. Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us. What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct). But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work? Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares. Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets. And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them. So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME). Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit. Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph. You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why? What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year? Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that? But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China? US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world. Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great? Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now. Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered. The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up. So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works. But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change? So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS. TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 |
The GME SEC Data and Hedge Fund Shitfuckery: A Deep DiveAs I'm sure many of you who have been following the "Counterfeit Shares" theory about the various short attacks on $GME have seen, the SEC publishes lagged data on the cumulative number of Fails to Deliver for every company. If you aren't caught up with the latest info on the counterfeit share theory, take a second and read u/johnnydaggers's [post](https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the_real_reason_wall_street_is_terrified_of_the/) laying out the issue with hedge funds counterfeiting shares and how it relates to GME. Much of the analysis in Johnny's post comes from an article ["Counterfeiting Stock 2.0"](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html) which is definitely worth a read if you have the time and patience to do a deep dive into the evil shit carried out by hedge funds.TLDR of Johnny's post: Hedge funds create a bunch of stock out of thin air and short it, selling the counterfeit shares on the open market and driving the price of a company down. They then fail to come up with the shares they sold in time, so the "counterfeit" shares are never backed up by real shares. This could be happening on a massive scale with GME, and Hedge Funds could have far greater exposure to GME than previously thought. The Data: I noticed that while u/johnnydaggers and later u/Peteskies used data from the SEC releases in their posts, the data they actually showed was only a small piece, and lacked very important context. So, with that in mind, I took the SEC Fails-to-Deliver data [releases](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) for both halves of November and December and the first half of January and took a look at what was going on using some pivot tables. I thought given the sheer amount of data (1.5 million cells) it would be tough to load in Excel but it actually ended up being pretty easy. (probably helped that my day job is just alternately making pivot tables and slamming my head into the wall, I've gotten pretty good at both) IMPORTANT NOTE: THIS RELEASE EXTENDS TO JANUARY 14TH, 2021. THESE ARE NOT CURRENT CUMULATIVE OUTSTANDING FAIL-TO-DELIVER LEVELS Fails-to-Deliver Distributions: First, take a look at this handy histogram(ish) of companies with outstanding Fails-to-Deliver and their outstanding "counterfeit share" (cumulative Fails-to-Deliver) numbers: https://preview.redd.it/6dmfpfql47f61.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf38fea8f5de2e45b36b48853f4d7afaca8f6c28 As you can see, GME is way outside of the pack when it comes to Fail to Delivers, and has significantly more "counterfeit shares" (FTDs) than almost any other company. The exact number comes in at a cool 621,483 shares. The x-axis scale isn't even linear, and you can see significant jumps in the last quarter. If you think that's some crazy shit, wait until you see the distribution of Fail-to-Delivers per company by the dollar value of counterfeit shares ((Closing Price)*(# of Outstanding Fails-to-Deliver)): https://preview.redd.it/024mdiv147f61.png?width=1616&format=png&auto=webp&s=270fc53a5455994545a864e8b8e9c304b0e57b5c GameStop has the SECOND HIGHEST Fails-to-Deliver net dollar value of all 5,147 stocks with current fail-to-delivers (as of 1/14/21). NINETEEN MILLION DOLLARS of stock floating around that was simply created out of thin air. Here the x-axis isn't even linear either — if it were to scale, GME would be several meters to my right. Wild. Cumulative Fails-to-Deliver of GME over Time: Moving on to more interesting (and potentially more troubling) data, I took a look at the Fails-to-Deliver values over time for GME. I decided to go back to the beginning of November, then look at every number the SEC had released since on FTDs for GME. This is crucial context for the numbers that have been thrown around by u/johnnydaggers and u/Peteskies. https://preview.redd.it/myt4zxy347f61.png?width=1328&format=png&auto=webp&s=603b5d5f0a623dc0dc9ef0df1f3da05e7361340f Now, this one is a lot less clear-cut than those histograms I just wrote about. As you can see, there have been huge fluctuations in the amount of "counterfeit stock" (Fails-to-Deliver) on the market. There is a definite pattern of Hedge Funds running up Fails-to-Deliver during GME surges and then covering once the price slumps a bit. I've talked with one of my sources involved with hedge fund operations, and he said this is pretty standard procedure — when you sell a naked short and the price spikes, you talk it out with your broker and get a few more days to cover. So really, this pattern is more or less normal. It's the stupidly large amounts Fails-to-Deliver that are getting churned that is the irregular part. Here's a good spot to bring up my main concern with the kind of analyses that u/johnnydaggers and u/Peteskies were putting out. You can see that there were 1.8 million Fails-to-Deliver on GME on December 2nd, but that number was basically completely covered by the 16th. Based on that data it seems at first glance that, for the most part, these reported Fails-to-Deliver are Hedge Funds/Brokers trying to avoid covering while high and simply waiting for the next dip. This data alone IS NOT SUFFICIENT to prove that there is an enormous, market-moving quantity of Fails-to-Deliver floating around the market. Of course, right after this data cuts out, GME shoots to the moon (300+), and I would expect a lot of naked short vendors were caught with their pants down. Maybe they all covered on the recent dips, maybe loads of Fails-to-Deliver are still out there. A table with that GME info from the graph above for any lurking nerds: https://preview.redd.it/0pj2hh0647f61.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=dcf2d64f6777218dece7735075b779fb51e28cca Some Questionable Inferences and My Retarded Conclusions: So, what's the takeaway here, other than don't trust everything you read on WallStreetBets? I think there are a few lessons. First, even though Fails-to-Deliver numbers were bouncing all over the place, including being completely covered on 12/16, I think it's important to keep in mind that GME having this volume of Fails-to-Deliver, both in shares and in dollars, is extremely irregular compared to everything else. Could just be the fact that GME is an insane stock with insane volatility,* or could be indicative of something more. \Yet, this data is from back before GME became mainstream — GME in December was not an "unprecedented situation" like we have now. Thinking back to then, the high Fails-to-Deliver numbers are even more significant.* A Possibility of Hedge Fund Armageddon: I want to take a second to talk about one of the diagrams from the good folks who wrote ["Counterfeiting Stock 2.0"](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html), detailing both the "surface level" indicators of Disclosed Shorts and Fails-to-Deliver, and the below-the-surface hidden pathways that they believed pumped counterfeit shares into our financial system. Here it is: https://preview.redd.it/v3io9bj847f61.jpg?width=1086&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21d67bbec3d7d4e3b2012b3d51cdaf462ae3318d As you can see, the Counterfeiting 2.0 authors believed that Fails-to-Deliver were just the tip of the iceberg. Below the surface (and out of the sight of the SEC), they believed there was a massive volume of shares that had been "laundered," through foreign exchanged, offshore funds, or even gaps in the Continuous Net Clearing system at the DTCC. These stocks, theoretically, go from Fails-to-Deliver to simple counterfeit shares, or even straight to counterfeits. The arguments in the Counterfeiting 2.0 paper go way over my head as a simple retard, but I get the gut feeling at least some of them are accurate. If, hypothetically, (please read this part in your best Ben Shapiro voice), the arguments in Counterfeiting 2.0 are true, then it is highly likely that the huge Fails-to-Deliver churn on the surface is just the tip of a massive illegal counterfeit short position. GME BULLS, listen up. If this counterfeit short position does exist, then it was probably entered back when GME was being driven towards bankruptcy, at a share price somewhere in the $15/20 range, and possibly expanded when GME was being driven down below $5. There are actually interesting data to suggest that this is a plausible scenario. First, the fact that, as DeepFuckingValue noted a year ago, the market cap of GME was driven below the net value of its assets. Obviously, this happens from time to time, but it's indicative of an extremely artificially depressed valuation. Secondly, the central use of illegal naked shorting is in driving companies to bankruptcy, and it did seem like GME was on its way out. Looking at GME as a scummy hedge fund manager, it would have made a very attractive target for a naked-short dilution attack. These illegal short positions, if they were not covered by cautious (lol) Hedgies at the beginning of the GME runup, would have increased 50-100x in dollar value as the share price of GME rose. That's 5,000-10,000% for those who can't do basic math. Now I don't know if this scenario would be enough to crash the market, but it would certainly be enough to make a lot of extremely powerful people (currently engaged in a criminal enterprise) desperate and very, very angry. This hardly needs saying, but rich bastards have killed for far less than a billion dollars. Here, there could be tens of billions on the line. So, that's the mega-bull case. We, the tards of WSB, expose billions in financial crime. The SEC rappels into Citadel and arrests everyone, Robinhood goes bankrupt, and all our wives and their boyfriends get filthy rich. However, there is also a very significant BEAR case here. If the regular, everyday investors who wrote Counterfeiting 2.0 were in fact retards like us, then there's a significant chance that they simply got it wrong. Maybe there is no sea of hidden counterfeit short positions, and maybe this whole Fails-to-Deliver thing is just rich assholes using extra trading days to cheaply sell shorts. What then? In that case, I would bet my left nut that all of the outstanding Fails-to-Deliver have been covered in the recent slump, and this whole exciting report is largely irrelevant to the future performance of GME. I'm not going to make the case that either the bulls or the bears are right (even though my gut is with the bulls) because I simply don't have the information or mental capacity to make that call. Look at the data yourself, and draw your own conclusions. Retail is facing an enemy with more capital, more information, more experience, and fewer morals. Whichever way it goes, it's going to be an ugly fight. Positions: 12 shares (Bought 50 at $20, sold 50 at $250, bought back in 12 at $300). I plan to hold until either $4,000 a share or things go to shit. I am not a financial advisor, and I do not advise any readers to make financial decisions based on my opinions or the information presented in this report. TLDR: the cumulative Fails-to-Deliver volume on GME is massive compared to the rest of the market. However, is also extremely volatile, and small compared to the float. It is possible that high Fails-to-Deliver volume is a result of massive illegal share counterfeiting by shorts.Edit: shout out to zjz for finally approving the post, may you live long and stay retarded! |
Disclaimer: I’m just an individual. Everything I say is my own opinion and speculation, not advice. Please make your own investment decisions. submitted by tjzint to smallstreetbets [link] [comments] Once GME is past its tipping point, I'm placing my bets on AMC. My buys from today 1/28 Update: Alright, it looks like this thread is back up, and we are back in business! Proof that I am still holding: https://imgur.com/a/MVzus0h. It's going to be a wild ride, so grab the popcorn!! Let's see how these trading freezes imposed by Robinhood (and I'm sure other platforms) affects the markets, but regardless, I'm holding until after GME peaks. Also, just a point of clarification. I actually bought an additional 2K yesterday, so that makes me up to $65K invested. Mid-day update: Wooo! How low can it go? https://imgur.com/a/rXGYkTa (Isn't it odd that since this morning, you can sell your shares on Robinhood, but you can't buy them? Relevant: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6yey9/big_boys_are_rooting_for_us_this_is_far_from_ove) Hopefully, this is a great dip opportunity to load up on more if RH ever opens back up. Am I worried? Not really. This thing is so volatile, it can go WAY up or WAY down on a moment's notice. It can be scary for the timid, but I've already made my plan and I'm sticking to it. You only lose if you buy high and sell low. After-hours update: Still holding strong. I hear Robinhood is going to start opening limited trades again, but by now we should all know that ANYTHING can happen. |
This is an extension of my DD series on GME. If you haven’t read them and have time, they will provide some background on my previous predictions, some of which have already come true. In this post, I’ll share my thoughts on what I think is going on, plus some tips to manage your positions and exits. submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] TL;DR: Shorts are in but likely want to get out. And they want to get out at the best price possible. See tips for managing positions. Previous Important Posts
What’s happening with the price?We’re still gamma squeezingMany media outlets are reporting this as a “short squeeze”. They’re only partially right, as if Melvin isn’t lying they’ve already been squeezed out.However, the reality is so far we’ve been Gamma squeezing - repeatedly - and some shorts have been casualties along the way. See this post for a deeper explanation, but the essence of it is that market-makers have to buy shares to hedge the calls they sell. The more calls people buy, the more shares they MMs have to hedge with. As I explained in part 1, GME has ultra low liquidity, i.e. there’s waaaay fewer actively traded shares than what shorts need to buy to cover with, and then when you get lots of people buying calls and shares in the hot new stock it just removes more availability from the market. As a result, when MMs buy shares to hedge, it moves the price of the underlying up. Combine that with the buying pressure of people piling into a stock climbing 100% a day, shorts getting liquidated, and it’s a perfect storm. Today, GME closed at $347 (before the after market selloff, but i’ll get to that soon). 320 calls were added yesterday. Similarly, when 115cs were added we squeezed to >115 in two days. Same story with 60c’s etc. Remember this commentary from EndGame part 3 on Friday’s price action: Notice how the stock dropped from a high of $75 on Friday to below 60 - the highest expiring SP for the 1/22 options, and stayed tight in range for the rest of the day. Now, for compliance reasons, MM are required to be neutral by EOD, so 20 minutes before close, MMs had to buy back all their short positions, which led to the strong close above 60. All this led me to believe that the real fair market price for GME was above $65. Without the market makers interference, GME would have closed higher. Now, what happened today? We opened at $351, more than double the previous close of $145 and after the morning profit taking, we squeezed to a high of $372 as MMs furiously tried to hedge the 320 calls they sold you the day before for peanuts. See, the thing is, Kenny G doesn’t like to lose money. The magical method Citadel’s market makers make money, is that they sell you call giving you the right to buy shares at a certain price, say $320, for the nice price of $10/share (for example). Now, as long as Citadel’s MMs can buy all the shares they have to give to you for less than $320, that $10 is free money. However, when the underlying moves too fast, the MMs have to buy shares for more than $320, and Kenny G does not like that. Today was a shock to the MMs that sold all the 320cs yesterday. A six-sigma event after a six-sigma event after a six-sigma event. Yet again, within days (a day?) of offering new, higher strikes - every call option ever sold was in the money, before they had a chance to adequately hedge. https://preview.redd.it/cq5wy45433e61.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c75a1e1a6e3808b54bafc646e2e6a7f29ca7cc3 So, just as on Friday, if the price got too high above $320, market makers dug into their bag of tricks to start selling it off. (People taking profits here helped too.) However, multiple times, when GME went below $300, MMs took their opportunity to hedge the 1/29 calls. So, just as before, we traded in a tight range around the highest strike. My conclusion from this action the first time was that GME’s fair price was being actively suppressed, and it proceeded to 5x in the next few days. There’s a possibility we’re in a replay and will see more upward movement on delta hedging alone. The point of this is: I think shorts are feeling the squeeze, for sure, reporting massive mark-to-market losses. But I believe the shorts are still in. Shorts are still inAs of Wednesday morning, Ortex was estimating a short interest of 65M shares, down from 71M shares the day before. https://preview.redd.it/ze8wx15633e61.png?width=932&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a034dbb3c54509c6267f20c4122ecdf3f6cf4bc If you’ve read my Part 1 (DTC Infinity), you’ll hopefully recall my thesis that there are actually less than 24M shares available, and therefore that it would be nigh impossible for shorts to close. Since then a slew of new investors have piled in to buy and hold GME, from little guys like us to big-ass-whales like Blackrock increasing their holdings to 13% of GME. So what? I think the available shares for shorts to buy are down to under 20M, and they have to buy 65M shares to close. Shorts have barely begun to cover. We’ve only been increasing the cost of their exits! Now, let’s talk about Melvin Capital. I loved watching Chamath defend retail investors and argue against the institutional leveraged shorting that got us here in the first place, but I also learned something interesting that helped me understand how the 140% short interest had in the first place, and how the unwinding may go. At 2:10 Chamath says “Gabe Plotkin is one of the giants of our era, but at the end of the day, what happens is that his trades are copied by umpteen other hedge funds that follow along ” This tells me 2 things:
Again, the problem is - there just aren’t enough shares. Shorts have dug themselves a massive grave by shorting more shares in existence and continuing to short while Cohen grabbed up 9M shares, institutions added to their positions, and retail traders piled in. For boomers like this tard that can’t understand why the price is so high - go back to Econ 101, supply and demand bitch. It’s costing shorts incredible $ to hold their positionsHere’s all the ways shorts are losing money.
Dirty tactics continueAt this point, I think “THEY” have figured out that gamma squeezes are absolutely destroying hedge funds. So what do they do?
Ripple effects of the squeeze
I believe we’re at a tipping point
Things to be careful aboutAs you can see, this is no easy win. In addition to the suggestions I wrote about in this post, here’s some things to be careful about.
Update New ortex data shows 51M short interest. So the covering has begun. Update 2: what you are seeing in the price drops is likely the gamma squeeze in reverse. People are rightly selling their short term calls, so MMs are selling shares they bought to hedge. That drives the price down, which then causes more de-hedging. This is all a manufactured selloff by elimination of ability of people to buy the equity and should absolutely be investigated. It's very likely the big boys knew the buying restriction was coming and started the selloff last night. Update 3: getting angrier by the minute. Reviewing the volume and price action and shorts bought in volume at the absolute bottom. This mothefucker, Steve Cohen, who bailed out Melvin and previously accused of insider trading is now GLOATING after this blatant trick https://twitter.com/StevenACohen2/status/1354864321134735360?s=09 |
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